Saturday, March 19, 2011

OP-ED Shaking up LA's plans

Although Japan's devastating earthquake was 5742 miles away, a simple thought must resonate in the mind of every Los Angeleno;  we must prepare for this to happen to us.

While Japan's current situation is a tragedy that in no way should be taken lightly, if the people of LA don't learn from this true horror then everyone lost will be even more in vain.

Every Angeleno knows that the area is prone to earthquakes, but not everyone realizes that Southern California is long overdue for a gargantuan high magnitude earthquake to relieve the pressure on the San Andres fault.Not to fear for two reasons:  California/America is more prepare d to handle the ramifications of a monster quake and the natural factors play to our advantage.

To start with, it should be mentioned that I am no expert on earthquakes.  I did, however, take a class at a Los Angeles college about the science of earthquakes. It's safe to say I know more than the average person.  Either way it doesn't take an expert to see just how horrible the aftermath of an earthquake can be.

Just look at Japan for example.  This site exemplifies just how much damage can be done by providing before and after pictures from the quake.  To be honest, there's was no way to avoid what happened there, but Los Angeles is a different case.

Its not a matter of if an earthquake will happen in Southern California but when.  Through studies of the seismology over the past few centuries scientists found that in LA, "strong earthquakes shook the area every 45-144 years". Finding out that the last major,  "earthquake struck southern California in 1857, or 153 years ago, scientists believe the next "Big One" could happen at any time."   Eventually the built up pressure will have to release.

With this there will be catastrophic damage.  The same scientists predict that, "With 37 million people living in southern California, chiefly in the cities of Los Angeles, San Diego and Anaheim, a major earthquake could kill between 2,000 and 50,000 people and cause billions of dollars in damage."  There's no way to prevent all of this, but knowledge and proper preparation could at least limit the devastation.

First off the natural factors of a quake make California/America more prepared for the earthquake than Japan.  Really there's almost nothing Japan could have done to prepare for what happened.  The 9.0 magnitude quake, which is one of the largest recorded since society started documenting them, isn't what caused the catastrophic damage.

While the quake caused its own issues, the main source of the problems was the killer tsunami that ravaged the country. The danger of a tsunami isn't the Hollywood version of a giant 30 foot wave.  The real danger is it's a small wave only a few feet high, but moving at insanely fast speed and extremely long, gushing hundreds of thousands of gallons of water and destroying anything in its path.  Tsunami's are caused by offshore earthquakes that raise or lower the earth's tectonic plates resulting an the creation of the forceful wave.  Its what caused the damage in 2004 in Indonesia and its what caused the damage in Japan last week.  Luckily for Angelenos, the pending earthquake won't cause a tsunami. The future earthquake will be land based because the tectonic plates of the San Andres fault lie a few hundred miles inland of Los Angeles.  While the damage will undoubtedly be great the lack of tsunami plays into the hands of people that will be affected by the incident.

America/ California's infrastructure is far more prepared to handle the aftermath of a large earthquake than Japan.  First off America is a much larger country.  When the earthquake happens the U.S government will be able to evacuate people to the east towards the center of the country.  Plus the government can import supplies from the rest of the country to help the survivors.  Japan's small size led to the whole country's affect of the earthquake and not just a small region.  Our sheer size will help.  Secondly another fallout from the quake is the nuclear power plant issues that Japan's dealing with.   While this could happen in a socal quake it's not as likely.  Our plants are built to withstand magnitude 7.5 quakes.  Seeing as the larget quake on the San Andres fault was a 7.9, coupled with the low risk of a tsunami, a nuclear power plant failure to rival japan is not likely.

Personally I have nothing to worry about for the future great quake.  No, I'm not invincible and no, I don't have a crystal ball that allows me to predict when the incident will happen, but I just may have lady luck on my side.  You see, I've lived here in Los Angeles for three years and not once have I ever been around during a significant earthquake.  In some fate-based trend I have travelled out of the state each and every time a notable earthquake has occurred.  A few plane rides and one bus to Vegas have allowed me to miss these unpredictable phenomenon.  And where was I when the great Japan quake happened?  That's right, on a plane out of California.  Unfortunately, my luck won't help the 37 million people left behind.  That is why we must prepare now.

1 comment:

  1. I agree with you that it is not a matter of if we will have an earthquake in Los Angeles, but when. However, I was a little confused by what you meant when you indicated that preparations must be done now. I did some research and found several sites that have very clear instructions on how one should prepare. Most notably was this site sponsored by FEMA, http://www.fema.gov/hazard/earthquake/eq_before.shtm. I think that the most important step is not only to educate the people of southern California, but to enforce a policy or regulation that ensures businesses and residences are actually adhering to these safety rules. Although that provision may be a lost cause given the state of the 112th Congress we all might have better luck traveling out of state like you do.

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